In honor of Halloween lets talk about what scares me for H2
1.This year I am going to dress up as Sir Philip Green (Topshop founder) and scare US retailers to death. If I don’t scare them on Halloween the opening of Tophsop Fifth Avenue will do the “trick”. For the teen and missy space I guarantee you this opening will not be a “treat”.
2.Analysts are all bulled up about declining gas prices. Reality is so far the extra money in your wallet hasn’t made a difference. KSS WMT JCP GPS URBN have already “spooked us” with guide downs.
3.Someone needs to yell “Boo!” at retail estimates for holiday. The writing is on the wall. Despite a slew of preannouncements street estimates have not come down nearly enough for the group. Even the most loved retailers might not be able to escape.
4.The mighty tourism dollar might dress up as the invisible man (or in my case I would settle for a Wonder Woman costume and fly in my invisible plane). Here is a scary reality: The mighty Asian spend has been holding up luxury comps in Europe and the US for a while. With the dollar strengthening, major US Flagships might see that spend dry up. I would also note that Asians are spending less in Europe and don’t forget the Russians are hiding behind a giant pumpkin.
5.And the most frightening Halloween thought of all? Don’t worry about the falling temperatures this weekend—watch out for the sound of falling gross margins (unfortunately TGT and WMT don’t sell that costume)
Stacey Widlitz, President SW Retail Advisors